New foresight reports on critical infrastructure systems
Geopolitical crises, technological developments and ecological challenges are shaping new risk situations and require forward-looking policy-making. Strengthening the resilience of critical infrastructure systems, which form the foundation of a functioning society, is particularly urgent. These systems encompass far more than physical and technological components - they also include economic, social, political, organisational and cultural dimensions associated with the development, use and maintenance of infrastructure.
The new Foresight Reports are dedicated to the central infrastructure systems of education and research, health and water. Based on a well-founded trend analysis, trend clusters are identified that will shape the future development of these systems from the perspective of technology assessment. In addition, the current and future vulnerability to systemic risks is assessed and the way in which path dependencies influence the desired transformation goals is highlighted. Each report concludes with a description of three focus topics that can be explored in greater depth in the resilience check.
The Foresight Reports 2025 thus provide a scientifically sound basis for designing resilient and sustainable infrastructure systems..
How robust are the individual infrastructure systems?
The risk analysis shows that the functionality and stability of infrastructure systems in the education, health and water sectors are facing growing challenges from systemic risks. These results emphasise the urgent need for integrated resilience strategies that address technical, social and governance-related risks.
The education and research sector is currently primarily threatened by staff shortages, social polarisation, technological failure and limited technological controllability. As systems become moe complex and digitalisation advances, the threat posed by increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks and limited technological control is growing. In addition, geopolitical conflicts are puttng pressure on the research system and hindering international cooperation.
The healthcare system is particularly susceptible to supply bottlenecks, however, social polarisation and concentrations of power also contribute to instability. Although digitalisation offers opportunities, new targets for cybercrime reveal existing security gaps. There is also a risk of an social polarisation through the use of AI-supported technologies, which can further compound existing discrimination, for example through gender data gaps.
In the water infrastructure system, the greatest challenge is posed by climate change-induced extreme weather events such as droughts and heavy rainfall pose the greatest challenge, while advancing digitalisation without adequate security measures brings additional cybercrime risks.
All results on our foresight platform
The Foresight Reports are published annually at foresight.tab-beim-bundestag.de. The next editions in spring 2026 will focus on the infrastructure systems of waste, finance and insurance as well as government and administration.
On 20 October , the in-depth Resilience Dossier "Water management in agriculture" will also be published on the microsite as a result of the 2024-2025 Resilience Check. It offers scenario-based analyses and fields of action for designing this central area with resilience in mind.
30.09.2025
Internet publications and further information
