New Foresight Reports on critical Infrastructure systems

Geopolitical tensions, digital transformation, climate-related impacts, and wider societal change are creating new challenges for critical infrastructure. Against this backdrop, the question of how the long-term resilience of key infrastructure systems can be strengthened is becoming increasingly important for forward-looking policy-making. The Foresight Reports analyse current trends, systemic risks, and transformation pathways that will shape the future of these systems. Each report identifies key clusters of trends, assesses the current and future risk landscape posed by systemic risks, and highlights path dependencies that may complicate necessary transformation processes. In addition, the reports identify potential focus areas for in-depth analysis in the Resilience Check.

The 2026 Foresight Reports thus form the basis for further work on selected resilience topics in Parliament and, at the same time, contribute to the forward-looking design of critical infrastructure systems.

How robust are the individual infrastructure systems?

The risk analysis shows that the functioning and resilience of the infrastructure systems for waste management, finance and insurance, and government and administration face growing challenges posed by systemic risks. The results underscore the urgent need for resilience strategies that address technical, social, and governance-related risks in an integrated manner.

The waste infrastructure system is undergoing a fundamental transformation from the traditional waste disposal industry toward a data-driven circular economy. Drivers of this development include new recycling processes, stricter regulatory requirements, and the increasing importance of secondary raw materials for security of supply. The current vulnerability of the infrastructure system to systemic risks is generally considered to be rather low. Nevertheless, there are several risks with a heightened potential for harm.. These include, in particular, extreme weather events, as well as technical failures and limited controllability of complex technologies. In addition, geopolitical conflicts, supply bottlenecks, and pandemics and epidemics currently pose an increased risk to the functionality and stability of the infrastructure system. Digital technologies to strengthen the circular economy, as well as proactive climate adaptation and crisis preparedness within the waste infrastructure system, are proposed as potential focus topics.

The finance and insurance infrastructure system is undergoing a profound transformation. Geopolitical tensions, new market players, digital financial services, artificial intelligence, and growing climate risks are  reshaping the sector's structures and business models in the long term. Overall, the current risk level is considered moderate. Geopolitical conflicts, cybercrime, and increasing concentrations of power and market share are currently among the most significant risk factors. The threat level is expected to continue to rise in the coming years. This trend is driven by the ongoing digitalisation and automation of core financial functions, persistent geopolitical tensions, and the increasing impacts of climate change. Potential focus topics include the future of AI-supported financial advisory services and digital wallets as key interfaces for payments, authentication and digital services.  

The development of the government and public administration infrastructure system is shaped by digitalisation, demographic change, workforce and skills shortages, and environmental challenges. The analysis already indicates a generally rather high risk level today. Staffing and skilled-labor shortages, financial constraints, cybercrime, geopolitical conflicts, and social polarisation pose particular challenges. As digitalisation progresses and hybrid threats become more widespread, the pressure on the state's capacityy to act and deliver services is likely to increase further. The proposed focus topics are the use of autonomous AI agents in public administration and the reliability of government information in the context of synthetically generated media.

Focus topic for the 2026/2027 Resilience Check

Based on the findings of the new foresight reports, the German Bundestag’s rapporteurs for technology assessment have selected the focus topic “Realiability of government information in the context of synthetically generated media” for in-depth analysis. As part of the Resilience Check, the TAB will conduct a scenario-based analysis of how synthetic media and AI-based communication dynamics affect the functioning and legitimacy of government and public administration.

Explore the key findings on our Foresight Platform

The complete Foresight Reports are available as PDF downloads. From 2026 onwards, they are published as official TAB reports with DOI identifiers and permanently archived in KITopen, ensuring their long-term accessibility for research, policy analysis, and public debate. Our microsite also provides easy access to all foresight reports. There, the key findings on trends, systemic risks, and focus topics for the respective infrastructure systems are presented in a concise format.

August 27, 2026

Downloads and further information

	TAB Foresight-Report Nr. 7 Infrastruktursystem Abfall Ergebnisse aus dem Resilienz-Radar (PDF) (Waste infrastructure system. Results from the Resilience Radar) doi:10.5445/IR/1000196372   Key findings on the Microsite
	TAB Foresight-Report Nr. 8 Infrastruktursystem Finanz- und Versicherungswesen. Ergebnisse aus dem Resilienz-Radar (PDF)  (Finance and insurance infrastructure system. Results from the Resilience Radar) doi:10.5445/IR/1000196374 Key findings on the Microsite
	TAB Foresight-Report Nr. 9 Infrastruktursystem Staat und Verwaltung Ergebnisse aus dem Resilienz-Radar (PDF) (Government and public administration infrastructure system. Results from the Resilience Radar) doi:10.5445/IR/1000196376 Key findings on the Microsite
	TAB Microsite  All Foresight reports, key findings and information on the Foresight process https://foresight.tab-beim-bundestag.de