Background and objectives

The resilience radar is used to identify trends that pose systemic risks and challenges to socio-technical infrastructure systems.  Based on the trends, the consequences of systemic risks and potential hazards are assessed for each critical infrastructure system. Based on topics that are actively discussed in society, science and politics, developments are identified that could have an impact on the functionality and resilience of the respective critical services and infrastructures.

Approach and results

The source pool is structured by sector and consists of relevant databases (e.g. EPTA, ORBIS, Knowledge4Policy, OpenTA) and publications (foresight studies, trend reports, conference proceedings and preprints). The sources are continuously screened and searched for relevant trends using the RS-Lynx media analysis software. For the relevance assessment, the media and political resonance of the identified trends is estimated using AI on the basis of more than 150 million internet sources (print, online, social, radio+TV, podcasts). The expert panel, consisting of technology assessment and foresight experts for the various critical infrastructure systems, is also consulted for further indications of relevant developments.

The results of the analyses are evaluated with the involvement of the expert panel and summarised in a situation overview, which also includes suggestions for focus topics suitable for the in-depth resilience check. The results are incorporated into the annual Foresight Report, together with the teasers from the Horizon Scanning.